11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Process Definition
Quantitative analysis involves numerical, statistical evaluation of risks and their potential impact on project objectives. Techniques for quantitative risk assessment include sensitivity analysis, expected monetary value and Monte Carlo modeling and simulation.Process Assessment
Monte Carlo assessment of schedules can be an intimidating activity for those who have never done it. But once you learn how to do it, it's not that hard and can be very revealing regarding weak spots in your schedule. Also, it is now required (as SRA - Schedule Risk Analysis) for Earned Value Management reporting on government contracts.
Figure 24. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Inputs, Tools and Techniques, and Outputs. Reprinted from "A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), 5th Edition" by Project Management Institute, 2013, p. 334. Copyright 2013 by Project Management Institute, Inc. Reprinted without permission.
- Expert Judgment: Research paper, authored by three of your favorite ERAU professors, comparing the PERT and Monte Carlo risk analysis tools and techniques. The paper was submitted for peer review in 2014.
- Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Technique: This homework assignment used PERT analysis to examine a project schedule. PERT is one of the primary tools and techniques for this process.
- Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques: Advantage Energy case study from PMGT 613 uses the PERT method, a tool and technique of the quantitative risk analysis process.